This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the source of the team's broader struggles.

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.